Weekly Performance Update: Week of 3/31/25

Market Recap

Brutal week for the markets. At least for those that were Long/Net Long Equites. I can't imagine premium sellers as a whole fared much better. Tariff News is 100% in control of the market now. Even conventional inflation measures are on the sideline for the time being. Or at least the magnitude of their impact on interest rate decisions.

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Our Overall Performance - Big Picture

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Our Net Performance This Week

Only trades in Pure Alpha for the week, which netted a modest gain. Signals were marginal for Hedge Fusion and Futures Focus, but they 'would have' turned out rather well, but we don't play the hindsight game.

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Our Trades This Week

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For more detailed and to view all performance visit the: Strategy Performance Page

The Week Ahead

As stated, Tariffs are 100% driving the bus for now. Some are calling for a "Black Monday" when markets reopen next week. Some are also calling for a bazillon point rally. Outside of positive Tariff News, the path of least resistance is down for now.

Either way, we will be prepared for whatever happens. Regardless of the news, it's more likely than not that the market will be up or down (or both) 7-10% from where we closed on Friday at some point in the next 5 trading days. 68.3% chance according to our data to be more precise. 19.1% chance that both happen.

We won't speculate too much on direction, as both are equally possible (well, 57% down, 43% up, so close to equal).

We will simply use our data, follow the process, trade what's in front of us (versus what we 'want' the market to do) and let the price action sort out the outcome.

As we have stated on Twitter, there are no Participation Trophies in the market. Ruthless execution of Process and Discipline are rewarded. Being prepared for any and every imaginable scenario and truly defining and accepting risk are mandatory to win.

"There's no crying in the Casino"

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